SM Prime (#SMPH) At A New All-Time High. Now What?
SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH) has recently marked a new all-time high when it surpassed its prior peak at Php39.70. The said rise came following a one-day sell-off that brought the stock to a low of Php37.00 from Php39.75 on news that a planned rehabilitation in Manila bay would delay or even cancel its reclamation project in the area. From a technical perspective, the stock may actually extend its ascent as its rise to a new all-time high actually translates to a breakout from a 12-month channel or consolidation. Although, its ‘breakout’ appears to be a little suspect given the lack of volume that accompanied. On the said note, I would have preferred a move past Php39.70 to be accompanied by a surge of at least a better-than-average volume. In any case, a sustained rise above Php39.70 may send it to a measured move of Php45.50. It would be prudent, however, to initially set a stop loss below Php38.00 and use a 21-day moving average as a trail stop trigger in case the stock fails to reach the mentioned goal. Fundamentally, consensus gives SMPH a 12-month fundamental target of Php37.37. At its current price, the stock is already trading at a 6.77% premium over its supposed fair value. Note that the said consensus target is the average of the fundamental fair value estimates that were given by major banks and investment houses on the stock.
SMPH write-up from the Trading Edge Equity Advisor:
November 26, 2018
SM Prime Holdings, Inc. (SMPH), contrary to our earlier prognosis, may instead start to recover. This is so as the stock has already invalidated a recent breakdown from a supposed double top. Its ability to rally above Php32.40 has created a ‘spring’ that may send it to its immediate resistance at Php35.40. Note that a break above Php35.40 may then send it to Php39.00.
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*Consensus target price or average target price given by the major foreign and local brokers of various stocks on top of index names are available in our Equity Advisor!
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