US Inflation Slows to 3.0% in June; Fed Seen to Cut by as Much as 3 Times This Year
US headline inflation rate, as measured in the CPI, slowed to 3.0% in June (versus 3.1% consensus) from 3.3% in May. On a month-on-month basis, inflation actually dipped by 0.1% (versus an expectation of a 0.1% increase). June’s data marked its third consecutive month of deceleration after it rose to a 2024 high of 3.5% in March. As a result, the probability that the Fed will cut its rate for the first time in September has increased to 90.3% from 83.4% the day prior and from 72.2% the week before. Moreover, there is now a more than 50-50 chance that the Fed will cut its rate by three 25 bps this year rather than just two.
Source: Trading Economics
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